Phillies Nation

The Definitive Summary to Cliff Lee Part II

Posted by Corey Seidman, Tue, December 14, 2010 01:57 PM

Several days ago, Phillies Assistant GM Scott Proefrock, when asked of the team potentially signing Cliff Lee, responded: “That ship has sailed.”

It did not seem like a smug, shady answer like those typically given by Godfather Ruben Amaro, it seemed like a genuine quote. He was too expensive. The Phils could not compete with seven-year offers or $150-$160 million deals.

So, what happened? How did such an improbable fantasy turn into reality in the span of one day?

The “Mystery Team”

For a little over one week, Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated and the MLB Network mentioned that, in addition to the Yankees and Rangers, a third “mystery team” was expressing interest. Some did not believe Heyman, most thought that even if a mystery team existed, it did not pose a serious threat.

The entire ordeal reminded me of the WWE. It was as if there was a triple-threat match for the Heavyweight Championship, with the champion and challenger known to all, and the mystery opponent being a big name star making his return.

When the dust settled, the Phillies turned out to be the “mystery team.” But, didn’t Proefrock say mere days ago that the ship had sailed? What explains the late surge made by the Phillies after weeks of nothingness on the Cliff Lee front?

Who Called Who?

Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reported early Tuesday morning that his feeling was that the Yankees and Rangers made their offers, but Lee subsequently decided his heart was in Philadelphia. Grant’s thinking is that Lee came to this realization and, along with agent Darek Braunecker, “put out feelers” to the Phillies, who simply reacted. Ruben Amaro did not “act” as he did to get Lee (the first time), Roy Halladay, or Roy Oswalt. He “reacted.”

Proefrock was giving accurate information when he said the ship had sailed. But, when he and Amaro were confronted by Braunecker with his client’s wishes to return to the city that treated him like a saint 18 months ago, it was simply too incredible an opportunity to pass up.

Comfort Over Dollars

The actual offers of the Yankees and Rangers have been widely circulated. We know that Cliff Lee chose happiness over the largest offer. At first, it appeared that he had given up $50 million to choose Philly over New York. But with word coming out that his easily reachable vesting option in 2016 is worth a whopping $27.5MM, that number is realistically closer to $13MM.

The Spit Factor

Cliff Lee’s wife was reportedly spit on at Yankee Stadium last season. I think $150 million can dry the residue of any loogy, but Philadelphia author and sportswriter, Randy Miller, was told that Lee’s wife was the main reason he did not choose New York. She “wanted no part of New York.”

Amaro the Magician

For a year, we complained about the trade of Cliff Lee to Seattle. The Phillies rushed and did not get enough in return. It was a bad trade. The end. Thankfully, Ruben Amaro more than made up for it by not only re-acquiring Lee, but also obtaining Roy Oswalt via trade.

In reality, Amaro has acquired:

• Roy Halladay
• Cliff Lee
• Roy Oswalt
• Ben Francisco
• Phillippe Aumont
• Tyson Gillies
• J.C. Ramirez

for

• Kyle Drabek
• Michael Taylor
• Travis d’Arnaud
• J.A. Happ
• Anthony Gose
• Jonathan Villar
• Lou Marson
• Jason Donald
• Carlos Carrasco
• Jason Knapp

Three aces – two of which have won Cy Youngs – for the price of one highly touted pitching prospect (Drabek), one third starter (Happ), and eight question marks. This does not happen every day. GMs are not capable of this.

How has Amaro done it? Well, by being creative, flexible, assertive, deep-pocketed, lucky, lucky, more lucky, and lucky again. Amaro has had the backing of a notoriously frugal ownership group and has made the most of the wealthiest era in Phillies history.

He has also benefited from the fact that the Phillies have been not only successful, but they possess a beautiful stadium, unbelievably passionate fans, and a gregarious group of players.

Hanley Ramirez may outhit Jimmy Rollins, but he does not have his personality. A year ago I’d tell you that the previous sentence serves no purpose, that, in baseball, personality does not matter as much as talent. That even if Jimmy is the proxy for the Phillies attitude as a whole, that intangible is less important than dozens of other skills.

But how can you say that now, when a player said “no” to two larger offers to come back to Citizens Bank Park?

Just a few years ago, no pitcher wanted any part of CBP. Now, guys are giving up guaranteed years and trust funds for their grandchildren to pitch in Philadelphia.

Truly remarkable times, these are.

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The Perfect Underdog

Posted by Corey Seidman, Sun, October 24, 2010 12:42 AM

April-thru-September are about talent. We were direct witnesses of that in 2010, when the Phillies used a 25-man roster of superstars, revelations, and underachievers to overcome a mid-season swoon. As the injuries mounted, we took solace in the fact that this team was too talented not to regress to its true ability, its true record, its true destiny.

But October is not about talent. Talent helps. But October is about timing. It’s about blown calls and bloop hits and pressure-caused errors. Its about timely hitting and the ability to catch unluckily-placed line drives.

The 2010 Phillies were more talented than the 2010 Giants, but you already knew that. The Phillies had H2O, after all.

When this series started, the adoration of H2O was neglected by the simple fact that the Giants were the one team that was capable of taming the massive beast that was the Phillies three-man rotation.

The Giants don’t hit anyway. It didn’t matter if they were facing Roy Halladay or Roy Oswalt or Joe Blanton, San Francisco was a team built on pitching and singles-hitting. They needed a certain sequence of events to take place in order to win this series, and that sequence began immediately. Once it picked up steam, that was it.

I kid you not, before the NLCS, I said to my director at Comcast SportsNet – who happens to be an absolute die-hard, lifelong Giants fan – that all it would take was a random two-run homer from Cody Ross to change the complexion of this series.

I didn’t foresee Ross turning into a six-game superstar, but I did foresee a player of his caliber running into a homer and staking the Giants to a 2-0 lead that would not be relinquished. The Giants could not have beaten a Phillies team receiving production from Chase Utley and Ryan Howard and Shane Victorino. But they could beat a struggling offense that they led from start-to-finish.

This is an empty feeling. It is empty because the better team did not win, as it did last October when the Phillies fell short to Damaso Marte and the Yankees.

The Giants were The Perfect Underdog – a team that faced less pressure despite having equal rotational talent. They benefited from strong performances from their studs and a bevy of couldn’t-be-placed-better-if-they-tried singles. The hitting was timely and the bullpen was strong. Javier Lopez was the MVP of the NLCS in my book, as he shut down the Phillies in six consecutive games – all in crucial situations. Utley and Howard faced Lopez twelve times and went 1-for-12.

This empty feeling is reminiscent of the way things used to feel in the early 2000s when the Phillies were good but not good enough. Specifically, this feels to me like the infamous Billy Wagner game of 2005 or the blown 8-2 eighth inning Braves game of 2007. You remember feelings like these because you know that you never want to feel them again.

It’s gonna suck waking up tomorrow and thinking about this immediately. But take solace in the fact that the Phillies will remain an elite team for several more years. Which brings us to the other pressing issue – the slow realization that Jayson Werth is gone.

Werth had a strong second half and an awesome postseason. Despite his RISP woes, his 2010 season was extremely impressive from an analytical standpoint, as he hit well home and away, vs. righties and lefties, vs. good pitching and bad pitching. As the weeks wore on, he only made himself more open-market money.

Werth will get a deal in the neighborhood of six years, $110MM. He was a tremendous threat in this lineup – a patient, calm, powerful righthanded bat that balanced the lineup and seemed to play his best baseball when Howard and Utley were NOT playing their best baseball.

I won’t expand any further on Werth right now because the issue at-hand is not his impending departure, but the Phillies disappointing end to the 2010 season. I wasn’t ready for this to end, and I know you weren’t either.

But that’s baseball. There is a reason no National League team has won three consecutive pennants in 66 years. You need the right factors to be on your side. Factors like timing and umpiring and batting average on balls in play luck. This year, the Giants had all three.

And that’s why The Perfect Underdog faces Cliff Lee in Game One of the World Series while we are left to wonder why Ryan Howard didn’t swing.

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Jayson’s Final Days

Posted by Corey Seidman, Tue, August 24, 2010 02:43 PM

When Jayson Werth signed with the Phillies in December of 2006, I remember telling my brother, Eric, that this was a winning move. I did not yet know Werth in the intimate way a 162-game watcher gets to know his city’s players, but I knew of his tools, potential, and plate discipline.

The first memory I conjured up when hearing of Werth’s signing was of Scott Graham, the play-by-play announcer at my former employer, the now defunct CN8. Somewhere around 2003-04, when I was doing graphics for Minor League Baseball on CN8, Graham (also a former Phillies broadcaster) used Werth’s name as a basis of comparison for a Double-A player. The quote went something like, “Player X reminds me a lot of Jayson Werth, who seemingly always found himself in a 3-2 count at this level.”

That was what I knew about Werth: tools, potential, plate discipline. And, well, injuries. There was the well-documented wrist surgery he suffered after being hit by an A.J. Burnett pitch in Spring Training 2005, which cut down his playing time but more importantly, vastly decreased his effectiveness at the plate.

Pat Gillick took a flyer on Werth in December of ‘06 because Gillick had drafted him 22nd overall in 1997, and, simply put, Gillick never gives up on guys he has a feeling about. At every stop – Toronto, Baltimore, Seattle, Philadelphia – Gillick put his stamp on his team by infusing it with players he knew. And he knew Werth, he knew what Werth was capable of.

First Impressions

The moment Werth set foot on the grass of Citizens Bank Park, I knew he would be a major part of the Phillies for years to come. I remember thinking, “you just don’t see guys like him often…guys with that body type, with those athletic gifts, with that kind of patience.”

A fondness for Werth developed. It was the kind that develops when you first hear of an obscure musician that few others know about. We’ve all had one of those – where we feel like it’s “our” band, “our” artist. We take pride in supporting them, and when they turn out to be the real deal, we feel accomplished, even though we had pretty much nothing to do with it.

Splits

The next several seasons saw Werth go from platoon outfielder to everyday player. At first, he demolished lefties but bailed out against every righthanded pitcher. Then, in ‘09, his splits began normalizing. Finally, by 2010, he was pretty much even against both types of pitcher, with better numbers (in a small sample) actually coming against righties.

Coming of Age

We’ve watched J-Dub evolve as a player, so it hurt when reality set in during the 2009 season (and more so in 2010) that keeping him around long-term was far-fetched.

It hurt when he began the 2010 season by reaching base safely in 26 consecutive games, or when he sat at .359/.420/.689 in mid-May.

It hurt less when he went 3-for-41 with 19 strikeouts in the worst stretch of the Phillies season (think Citi Field, round one).

He’s a streaky player. We should expect his numbers to soar during some two-week periods and plummet during others.

• From May 23-to-June 10, his average dropped from .327 to .274 and his OPS fell 120 points.

• And then from July 22-to-August 12 his average rose from .279 to .304 and his OPS gained 57 points.

Vitriol

Every honeymoon ends. Werth is currently in the midst of his best professional season, but you wouldn’t know it from reading most of the words written about him in 2010. Sure, out-of-city writers recognize his value, as do mostly all logical analytical minds in Philadelphia.

But there is some kind of over-arching factor that is preventing us from feeling the same level of fondness we once did for Werth. If I’m not speaking on behalf of you, I guess I’m speaking on behalf of myself.

Big Spots

Maybe it’s the poor performance in pressure-packed situations.

Werth is 6-for-56 with runners in scoring position and two outs (this includes a 1-for-35 stretch that recently ended), and he’s walked a bit, but not hit at all in both late & close situations (.219/.351/.328, 22 Ks in 64 ABs) and during high leverage at-bats (.218/.369/.386).

This is not to say “Jayson Werth isn’t clutch.” In past years, he has performed well in such situations. But this year, he hasn’t. And when you don’t perform in big spots enough times, the tide of admiration begins to turn.

Lack of Focus

It could also be Werth’s perceived laziness or lack of focus. This was never more evident than Monday night, when he put his head down and didn’t notice as Astros catcher Humberto Quintero threw behind him to pick him off at second following an intentional walk. Raise your hand if you’ve ever seen that before.

If you want to go back a bit further, there was the ridiculous second base pickoff that took place during the Gaby Sanchez Foul Ball Game. Werth was on 2nd with one out, with Marlins closer Leo Nunez on the ropes after giving up two runs to tie the game. He was picked off and looked about as foolish as one possibly can on the basepaths.

When you think about these important baserunning blunders and all of the strikeouts in key spots, it is possible to draw two conclusions: he either doesn’t care, or he’s trying TOO hard.

Smugness

Then comes Werth’s personality, another key factor to his reputational demise in Philadelphia. He carries this aura of superiority and aloofness that reached the point of no return in an interview with Sports Illustrated that made him look like a prima donna and a prick.

The interview – one of the featured articles in last week’s SI – was a rare opportunity for a non-superstar to humanize himself and make an impression on an enormous amount of readers.

Either Werth’s publicist is non-existent or he lacks common sense, because his series of ground rules and refusals made him out to be an extremely unlikable person. It was reminiscent of this season’s Mad Men episode in which Don Draper pissed on the opportunity to give himself and his agency good publicity by cooperating or giving actual answers to a newspaper reporter.

Werth refused to answer any questions about his personal life – which is understandable – but it doesn’t end there.

On top of not commenting on his stepfather (baseball player), mother (track star, softball player), uncle (baseball player), grandfather (baseball player), great grandfather (baseball player), and biological father (college wide receiver), Werth denied his interviewer the opportunity to speak with them directly.

It wasn’t as if author Franz Lidz wanted to speak with these people for the sake of gossip, he was just looking for a story about the Schofields and Werths. Lidz wanted to paint a picture of an unbelievably physically gifted family. He wanted quotes about Jayson, quotes about influences, quotes about an amazing family tree.

But Werth gave him nothing, and appeared delighted to do so. Here’s a snippet:

[Werth] agreed to an interview only if no questions involved his wife, his two kids or any aspect of his private life. The rest of his relatives are off limits too. Asked—gingerly—if he would pass along the number of his mother, the former track star Kim Schofield Werth, he snaps, “My mom is unavailable. She just got her phone number unlisted and moved from Illinois to the Ozarks.” Ditto his stepfather, the former big leaguer Dennis Werth: “I’ve got his number in my cell, but I’m not giving it out.”

How come?

“I don’t see why he has to share his thoughts about me with the rest of the world.”

There are a few other examples where Werth answers as if he’s being interrogated, but I’ll let you read the article for yourself if you want to see.

When I first read the interview, I tweeted that it deservedly portrayed Werth in a negative light. A few hours later, I was glad to see I wasn’t on my own. Among many other anonymous tweeters, here were the two best from local writers:

J.R. Finger: “Read the SI story on Werth this afternoon… I don’t know, he kind of comes off as a jerk.”

Les Bowen: “I’m thinking Jayson didn’t want that Sports Illustrated guy talking to his mom because she might admit she dropped him on his head a few times.”

His Last Hurrah

Werth’s gone after this year. Like it or not, he’ll get himself a five-year deal worth at least $90 million. He’s one of the only impact bats on the free agent market, he’ll be coming off of his best year, and general managers seeking to create a “winning culture” will drive up the market by lauding his postseason experience.

Even if the Phillies had enough money to re-sign him, one wonders whether giving a 36-year-old Werth $18M in 2015 is worth stunting the development of Dom Brown, especially when there is no guarantee the Phillies will be an elite team four or five years from now.

It’s been an incredibly strange journey with Jayson Werth. He went from player with unrealized potential-to-platoon outfielder-to-underrated everyday player-to-star-to-scapegoat.

Whether or not the criticism was deserved, Werth’s personality sure didn’t help.

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Phillies on Brad Hawpe: “Maybe”

Posted by Corey Seidman, Thu, August 19, 2010 03:37 PM

According to Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports, a Phillies club official responded “maybe” when asked if the team was interested in signing the recently released Brad Hawpe.

Rosenthal also mentions the White Sox and Rangers as other possible fits, but notes that the Red Sox are unlikely to make a play for the lefthanded first baseman/outfielder.

In exactly 300 plate appearances this year, Hawpe has produced a .255/.343/.432 line, good for a league average .776 OPS. When you consider that Hawpe is a slow, poor fielding outfielder who will ultimately be relegated to first base duty only, this league average OPS is less valuable. After all, first base is the most competitive offensive position.

But don’t let the small 2010 sample dissuade you from recognizing the potential bench boost Hawpe would bring – from 2006-2009, Hawpe produced a very impressive .288/.384/.518 slash-line. The .902 OPS was 25% better than league average.

And the above numbers come without a caveat, because Hawpe was one of the few players who produced at essentially the same level at Coors Field and away from it.

Despite the line of thought that says “the Phils don’t need Hawpe, they already have two lefthanded hitting first basemen in Ryan Howard and Ross Gload,” I actually see Hawpe as a worthwhile signing.

Hawpe would be an upgrade over Greg Dobbs, and could potentially give the Phillies a postseason bench of: Gload, Hawpe, Francisco, Schneider, Valdez.

That is, by all means, an attractive bench. You would have two lefty power threats in Gload and Hawpe, a solid righty bat in Francisco, a backup catcher, and a superb defensive utility infielder.

If the Phillies decide to go with a six-man bench, which they probably would since a rotation of Halladay-Hamels-Oswalt doesn’t leave room for a ton of relief innings, Mike Sweeney would also likely find himself on the roster.

Dom Brown’s Immediate Future

A Hawpe signing would obviously leave Domonic Brown off the postseason roster (assuming the Phils get there).

Aside from his 441-foot bomb Wednesday night, Brown hasn’t exactly set the world on fire as a starter or pinch-hitter. As is common with most rookies, Brown’s poor plate discipline has kept him from producing at a high level.

But don’t be worried – he has shown flashes of amazing power in his brief tenure in The Show and this experience will assuredly prepare him for full-time duty next year.

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Is Derrek Lee an Upgrade?

Posted by Corey Seidman, Wed, August 18, 2010 02:14 PM

While not official as of this post, a trade of Derrek Lee from the Cubs to the Braves for mid-level prospects appears imminent.

Lee has struggled mightily in 2010, but save for a month so has Troy Glaus, the first baseman he’ll be replacing.

In 475 plate appearances with the Cubs, Lee has produced an ugly .251/.335/.416 slash-line that may be passable for a catcher, but surely not at the game’s best offensive position.

Don’t judge this trade based on the “name value” of Derrek Lee. He hasn’t been the same player.

A large part of Lee’s lack of success in 2010 has been due to his low Home Run/Fly Ball ratio, which I cannot imagine will improve too much with Lee going from a hitter’s park in Wrigley to a pitcher’s park in Turner Field.

Lee’s defense, a part of his game that was universally praised for the entirety of his prime, is also deteriorating. In an interview with Harry Pavlidis of CubsFX.com on this very site some weeks back, Pavlidis made it clear that Lee’s range and reaction time at first base was eroding.

When you couple an OPS 6% worse than league average with worsening defense at the easiest defensive position, you realize that this version of Derrek Lee is not exactly a world-beater.

Typically, we would look at Lee’s production and declare him an aging 34-year-old vet whose best days are behind him. However, Lee had the second best year of his career (.972 OPS) last year at age 33, and had two solid seasons at ages 32 and 31.

Even though this might not be a pure case of “Player X on the Decline,” it doesn’t really matter for the Braves one way or another, because Lee is only under contract for seven more weeks. Maybe he’ll return to form next year, but it probably will not be in a Braves uniform, so all that matters is that in 2010, he’s been half the player he once was.

If this was a definitive “change of scenery” case, Lee could be a solid producer for Atlanta down the stretch, but through 109 games, he has possessed all of the same flaws as Glaus.

Lee has OPSed .751, Glaus .749. Both have hit into 16 double plays. Both have struck out between 95-100 times. Both have swung at more pitches out of the strike zone this season than any other in their careers.

(Although oddly enough, despite the career highs in that last stat, Lee and Glaus still rank 1 and 2 respectively among NL first baseman in fewest swings outside the zone).

Glaus has been worth 0.4 WAR – very close to replacement level – and Lee has been worth 1.1 WAR, still an inadequate number.

I won’t get into defensive statistics to compare the two because UZR, an already shaky stat, is even more suspect in its judgment of first baseman. Suffice it to say, Lee, even with deteriorating defensive skills, will be a better fielder than Glaus, who has absolutely zero lateral movement.

So there you have it – it’s a slight upgrade defensively (Lee will save about 4 runs in the field), and probably a wash offensively.

As I said, if this was a pure change of scenery type of thing for Lee, it could provide the Braves with a *small* boost, but keep in mind that it takes Glaus’ rare punch out of the lineup. It’s not like Atlanta added to their lineup without subtracting, and it’s not as if the Braves obtained a player with a different, more useful skill set.

This trade was the equivalent of replacing a ripped $10 bill with one that has permanent marker all over it.

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Squashing the “Bat Ruiz Leadoff” Campaign

Posted by Corey Seidman, Mon, August 16, 2010 02:40 PM

I addressed this in the comments section of my last post, but feel that it’s become such a popular blogosphere topic that it deserves its own post.

Carlos Ruiz should not be batting first. Or second.

It is true that you want a high on-base percentage out of your leadoff batter. It is also true that Chooch has a .381 OBP. But a .381 OBP in the seven- or eight-hole is not easily translatable to the leadoff spot.

Why?

Well, first, keep in mind that Chooch has six intentional walks this year, all of which have been the means to the end of pitching to a pitcher, or to Wilson Valdez. Then factor in his two unpredictable hit-by-pitches, which also contribute to OBP.

Subtract those eight instances, and Ruiz’ OBP goes from .381 to .364. This is still impressive, but you must also recognize that Carlos has received a good amount of unintentional-intentional walks this season, i.e. plate appearances in which he sees nothing but junk.

Chooch would certainly stop seeing as much junk if batting first or second, so even with exceptional plate discipline, his walk rate would decline. If you figure that there is a 10 or 15 point dropoff in OBP from batting 7 or 8 to batting 1 or 2, were looking at about a .350 OBP from Ruiz.

Even with all of his recent struggles, Jimmy Rollins has still maintained a .340 on-base percentage, a figure nearly 100 points higher than his batting average.

So, if the debate is between a slow guy with a .350 OBP and a fast guy with a .340 OBP and years of experience in the leadoff spot, wouldn’t you choose the latter?

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Fun Facts for the Dreaded Off Day

Posted by Corey Seidman, Mon, August 16, 2010 02:22 AM

I don’t know about you, but few things are more upsetting for me than a Phillies off day.

So, while we all walk around droopy faced and misty eyed that the surging Phils won’t be on TV tonight, let’s at least digest some interesting info, courtesy of Baseball Prospectus, B-Ref, and all the strange places my mind wanders to.

Shane Victorino and RBI Opportunities

Shane has had the 7th fewest plate appearances with runners on base in major league baseball this season, at 145. He is also a non-power hitter who missed more than two weeks. Yet he has 54 RBI.

This fascinating, under-the-radar discrepancy is due to the fact that Shane has knocked in the runners on base during 19.7% of his opportunities – the second best rate in the NL (to Carlos Gonzalez).

The worst Phillie in such situations has been Jayson Werth, who has knocked in others in only 13.3% of his chances, 20th worst in the NL.

Some interesting names that rank even worse than Werth in this futile category are: Prince Fielder (3rd), Jay Bruce (6th), Brandon Phillips (9th), Jeff Francoeur (15th), Pablo Sandoval (16th), and Martin Prado (18th).

Prince Fielder leads the NL in plate appearances with runners on base, so his 9.9% success rate has been a major reason for the Brewers’ inconsistent offense. We’re looking at a guy who probably should have eclipsed 100 RBI already, yet he’ll start the week with 61.

Something tells me this won’t be one of Scott Boras’ selling points in his quest to get Prince 700 billion dollars.

Placido Polanco – Batman

Polly, or Polancey as my dad’s trained me to call him (pronounced Puh-lon-key), has hit 81 line drives this season, 4th most in the NL. Only James Loney, Carlos Gonzalez, and that Albert Pujols fella’ have hit more.

The worst line drive hitter in the NL has been Mark Reynolds.

The Braves surprisingly have 4 of the 12 worst line drive hitters in the league: Troy Glaus is third worst, Melky Cabrera and Jason Heyward are 9th and 10th worst, and Chipper Jones is 12th worst.

The only Phillie in the bottom 30 is Victorino, who is 24th.

Shane, despite, his success with men on base, has hit a ton of popups (13th most in NL). Contrarily, Ryan Howard has the 3rd fewest popups in the league.

Seidnote: I find it funny that Jeff Francoeur is in the top ten of literally every negative ball-in-play category.

Wilson Valdez and Double Plays

Willy has the second highest double play percentage in the NL, at 24.2%.

Unbelievably, nearly one-third (31.3%) of Ivan Rodriguez‘ plate appearances with runners in place have resulted in double plays. But it’s okay, because he’s a veteran presence who can handle a pitching staff (vomit).

Phillies Pitchers

• Roy Halladay has an absolutely ridiculous 7.95 strikeout-to-walk ratio. If it weren’t for he-who-shall-not-be-named walking one batter for every 15 he strikes out, this would be getting more pub.
• Kyle Kendrick has induced a double play in 17.4% of his opportunities, the third best rate in the NL behind only Tim Hudson and Zach Duke.
• Only ten NL pitchers have allowed a higher percentage of line drives than Kendrick, but several of the names are guys you wouldn’t expect: Yovani Gallardo has allowed the 2nd most, Johan Santana is 6th, and Tim Lincecum is 7th.

And the last fact I’ll give you is this: Trevor Cahill of the Athletics has the lowest BABIP in the majors, at .213, despite facing the toughest opposition of any major league pitcher (according to Baseball Prospectus’ Opponents’ Quality Batting Average metric).

What’s more, in his last start, Cahill became only the second pitcher EVER to go twenty consecutive starts of six hits or fewer in at least five innings of work. The other was Nolan Ryan.

With trade deadlines coming up in fantasy baseball leagues across the country, now would be the time to give up a big name like Lincecum for Cahill. Lincecum’s name carries so much weight that you may even be able to snag a hitter or secondary pitcher (an Anibal Sanchez-type) in the deal.

That’s all for now folks. Roy Oswalt and Barry Zito on Tuesday night.

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Trip Aces

Posted by Corey Seidman, Sun, August 15, 2010 05:20 AM

In the span of four days, Roy Oswalt, Cole Hamels, and then Roy Halladay combined to allow one run in 23 innings. The trio allowed 18 baserunners while punching out 20 Dodgers and Mets. Separating the three masterpieces was an eight-run comeback win. Times are good.

In three starts, Oswalt has respectively looked bad, encouraging, and dominant. Should he continue to get acclimated to the increased pressure of his new surroundings, this is one ungodly trinity the Phillies possess.

Hamels was once again brilliant Friday night, putting together another nearly flawless outing in the most frustrating away game I’ve ever attended. Zero runs were scored for Cole (in three starts vs. the Mets this season, the Phils have scored nary a run with Hamels on the mound), and yet another loss was added to his insanely misleading 7-9 record.

(Baseball Prospectus’ Run Support Neutral Win Expectancy has Cole at 14-9. This represents what a pitcher’s record should be if he has received league average run support, which Cole most certainly has not.)

In 154 innings, Hamels has allowed 57 runs, but the Phillies have scored only 56. So, as impressive as his 3.33 ERA has been, opposing pitchers have a better ERA in those 154 innings against Phillies batters.

Is there some sort of gypsy dance we can do to make the team hit a ball in the gap for Cole?

Regardless of run support, wins, and losses, Hamels is on pace to pitch 220 of the finest innings of his career. This isn’t “the Cole of 2008,” this is the Cole of 2010 – a four-pitch lefthanded monster whose fastball somehow now resides in the 92-96 range.

The velocity increase and widening disparity between fastball and changeup has enabled Hamels to strike out 9.2 batters per nine, a career high of his for a full season. And better yet, when hitters do make contact, it has been weaker – for Cole, groundballs are at an all-time high and line drives are at an all-time low.

Then comes Halladay, he of the 2.24 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and (gasp) 8.0 K/BB ratio in (gasp) 193 innings. The man is one game away from 200 innings! It’s August 15!

Halladay was friggin’ surgical on Saturday night, dispensing of Met-after-Met like they were a charter school basesball team . Leadoff triple? Who cares. Doc went groundout-strikeout-strikeout against Pagan-Wright-Beltran to quell that Jose Reyes threat.

The Mets mustered only three more singles against Halladay. In eight innings, two men reached scoring position.

Complain about whatever you want – injuries, an inconsistent offense, a strange sequence of front office decisions – just make sure you recognize and praise a player you may never again see in your life – Roy Halladeity.

A lot of what I provide for this site is analytical. Everything has a point. This doesn’t, other than to drool over the 1-2-3 the Phillies will keep rollin’ along with for the next few months.

Chase Utley’s due back Tuesday and, according to several very recent reports, so is Ryan Howard.

The Phillies have a few holes, sure. But imagine for a second that you’re one of the other NL contenders. Now glance up at the rearview mirror and take notice of that white-and-red freight train.

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Advantage: Phillies?

Posted by Corey Seidman, Tue, August 10, 2010 04:15 PM

The top six teams in the National League are currently separated by a mere 2.5 games. As it stands now, two contenders exist in each division.

• The Braves and Phillies in the NL East
• The Reds and Cardinals in the NL Central
• The Padres and Giants in the NL West

Four of these teams will reach the postseason, two will not. Let’s look at some schedule facts:

Home/Road Splits

• Phillies: 51 games left (26 home, 25 road); +17 at home, -4 on road
• Braves: 50 games left (27 home, 23 road); +24 at home, -8 on road
• Reds: 49 games left (24 home, 25 road); +9 at home, +6 on road
• Cardinals: 51 games left (25 home, 26 road); +20 at home, -7 on road
• Padres: 52 games left (26 home, 26 road); +11 at home, +7 on road
• Giants: 49 games left (27 home, 22 road); +14 at home, +1 on road

Strength of Remaining Schedule

• Phillies: 32 of 51 games (63%) against sub-.500 teams
• Braves: 33 of 50 games (66%) against sub-.500 teams
• Reds: 31 of 49 games (63%) against sub-.500 teams
• Cardinals: 31 of 51 games (61%) against sub-.500 teams
• Padres: 20 of 52 games (38%) against sub-.500 teams
• Giants: 18 of 49 games (37%) against sub-.500 teams

As you can see, the Padres and Giants have significantly tougher remaining schedules than do the other four teams. This is mostly due to the fact that two of their NL West foes – the Rockies and Dodgers – continue to tread water over .500 in hopes of making a late-season push.

Of course, instead of looking at games vs. above-.500 teams against games vs. sub-.500 teams, you could examine the more direct Winning % of remaining opponents, in which case the Phillies are the worst off:

Average Win % of Remaining Opponents

• Phillies: .502

• Braves: .481

• Reds: .476

• Cardinals: .468

• Padres: .494

• Giants: .499

Due its subjection to more rapid fluctuation, I find this stat slightly more misleading than “Above and Sub.” You would figure that these closely-bunched teams should win 2 of 3 from the bad teams and split (or go 2-1 and then 1-2 to balance out) against the good teams, with sweeps being less common.

Obviously, that doesn’t have to happen. Atlanta could easily lose 2 of 3 in Houston, or a key Cardinal or Red could get injured this week and no opinions or conjecture will matter. The facts I’m providing you are designed merely to lay odds on possible end-of-season outcomes.

On the Phillies’ side is the fact that they have three games left against the Giants (home), three against the Padres (road), and six against the Braves (3 home, 3 road). Head-to-head wins in these twelve games are of the utmost importance.

The SIERA Advantage

The Phillies’ other advantage is that 30/31 of its remaining 51 games will be pitched by either Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, or Roy Oswalt.

The H2O Triumvirate is the only 1-2-3 to find itself in the top-18 of the SIERA Leaderboard. SIERA, created by Baseball Prospectus authors Matt Swartz and Eric Seidman, is the best existing measure of pitcher performance, and serves as a better predictor of future value than does ERA, FIP, or xFIP.

SIERA measures the things a pitcher has complete control over:

• Strikeouts-per-plate appearance,
• Walks-per-plate appearance, and
• Ground balls-per-plate appearance

It places these three factors on the standard ERA scale (that is, the lower the SIERA, the better). Eliminated are the factors it is thought that a pitcher has little or no control over, the foremost of which being his team’s defensive ability. For all you fantasy baseball lovers, this should be your pitcher-metric-of-choice. No other stat does better in predicting future success or failure.

Halladay (2.85) is second in baseball behind Jered Weaver (2.79). Hamels is 11th, at 3.28, and Oswalt is 17th, at 3.46.

The Marlins have two starters in the SIERA top-30 (Josh Johnson is 4th, Ricky Nolasco is 14th), as do the Dodgers (Kershaw: 19, Kuroda: 21), and Cardinals (Wainwright: 6, Carpenter: 27). But the Phillies are the only NL team that has three members of its staff in the top-30.

That’s a pretty nice power to possess over the next 50 games.

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The Rare “Acceptable” Bunt/Know Thy Enemy

Posted by Corey Seidman, Sun, August 08, 2010 01:05 AM

On very few occasions do sacrifice bunts actually work. On very few occasions do I support a manager’s or player’s decision to lay one down. But Charlie Manuel and Placido Polanco made the right call Saturday night…

…just against the wrong opponent.

Down 1-0 in the bottom of the eighth, Jimmy Rollins and Raul Ibanez each singled. Polanco, batting third, came up with runners on first and second with no outs, and promptly laid down what would have been a successful sacrifice 99% of the time.

Unfortunately, Johan Santana, an incredible fielding pitcher who is arguably this era’s Greg Maddux-with-the-glove, dashed to the rolling baseball and fired a strike to nail Jimmy at third base.

First-and-second, no outs, turned into first-and-second, one out. More importantly, the bat was taken out of a .320-hitter’s hands.

Predictably, a wave of online backlash took place. All of the generic arguments about bunting were made:

“BUNTING IS BAD” …

“BILLY BEANE TOLD ME NOT TO BUNT” …

“I READ ON FANGRAPHS THAT BUNTING DOESN’T WORK SO NOW I MAKE FUN OF PEOPLE WHO SAY IT DOES BECAUSE MAYBE IF I’M AS HARD-HEADED AND CLOSED-MINDED AS OLD-TIME SPORTSWRITERS PEOPLE WILL LISTEN TO ME, TOO!”

In most cases…yeah, the critics would be right. But not in this case.

Not on a night when the Phillies were on the precipice of mounting a late rally, and were down by a mere run, at home, playing in front a completely bonkers crowd. Not with a good contact hitter in Mike “Designated Hugger” Sweeney on deck, and a plus-runner on the bases in Rollins.

BUNTING was the right call, but BUNTING AGAINST SANTANA was not.

Being a lefty, Santana had a straight shot to third base. He didn’t have to twist and turn to make an accurate throw. Polanco laid down a very good bunt, but Santana’s execution beat Polanco’s execution. These things happen.

If Sunday night’s starter, R.A. Dickey, was on the mound, we would have been looking at a second-and-third, one out scenario with Sweeney at the plate. One nicely placed ground ball, fly ball, or base hit later, all of the criticism would have been negated.

Santana made the play, the Phillies didn’t score, and the Mets’ 1-0 lead held. Cole Hamels was robbed of yet another should-be win, after pitching seven brilliant innings.

Hamels has won just twice since May 27. He should have at least seven, but probably closer to nine wins in that span. The man has gotten less support than Arrested Development.

So that’s that. You can argue that a 3-hole hitter shouldn’t be bunting, and I’d agree in most cases. Utley, Howard, Werth? No, I don’t want them sacrificing. Polanco, however, is a solid bunter, and let’s not overlook his 10 GIDPs this year, or his career average of 17 per season.

Sometimes you make the wrong decision and things work out (i.e. batting Jamie Moyer in the fourth inning last time Santana pitched in Philly.) And sometimes you make the right decision and things don’t work out.

After the game, Charlie Manuel said he’d make the same call again if given the opportunity.

Something tells me he silently added “so long as Johan’s not on the mound.”

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Talkin’ Phils-Mets with Mets Gazette

Posted by Corey Seidman, Fri, August 06, 2010 01:55 AM

Timely hitting, good pitching, Big Chooch, and a little luck helped the Phillies complete a three-game sweep in South Florida Thursday night. For Mike Baumann’s write-up, go here. (Or just press the down key a few times.)

At 60-48, twelve games over .500 for the first time all season, the Phillies come home to take on the Mets for three at Citizens Bank Park. Remember when 26-15… or 24-13 was the high watermark for the season? Not anymore. It only took 60 games and a few thousand injuries.

Blanton-Niese on Friday, Hamels-Santana on Saturday, Halladay-Dickey on Sunday.

I sat down with Frank Gray of Mets Gazette earlier this week to review and predict the trials and tribulations of both teams.

We talked Halladay, Howard, Ibanez, injuries, strengths, weaknesses, and expectations. We also discussed the Mets deficiencies from the perch of unbiased observer.

For more, pay ‘em a visit.

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Mayberry Stays, Ransom Goes, Rizzotti Promoted

Posted by Corey Seidman, Thu, August 05, 2010 03:16 PM

The Phillies made two roster moves Thursday, designating infielder Cody Ransom for assignment and promoting Matt Rizzotti to Triple-A Lehigh Valley.

Ransom leaves the 25-man roster to make room for the newly acquired Mike Sweeney, who will participate in a first base platoon with Ross Gload while Ryan Howard is shelved with an ankle injury.

Ransom’s departure allows John Mayberry, Jr. to stay on the active roster, which makes the most sense given the context of this team. Mayberry is a better option than Ransom as a pinch-hitter, pinch-runner, and defensive replacement, and the Phillies already have a glut of players that can play first, second, and third.

Movin’ On Up

The promotion of Matt Rizzotti from Reading to Lehigh Valley was also a good roster move. Make that three good moves in two days for the Phils. Rizzotti, a first baseman, hit .362/.451/.638 in 308 plate appearances in the Eastern League, belting 16 home runs and 25 doubles.

It was the 24-year-old’s first experience in Double-A and he sure made the most of it, leading the league in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and, naturally, OPS.

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Even at 36, Sweeney > Ransom

Posted by Corey Seidman, Wed, August 04, 2010 05:59 PM

Who needs the trade deadline?

The Phillies acquired 1B/DH Mike Sweeney from the Mariners Wednesday in exchange for either a fringy player to be named later or cash considerations.

The declining five-time All-Star hit .263/.327/.475 for Seattle this year in 110 plate appearances. His .802 OPS was 18% better than league average.

Sweeney has been sidelined with back spasms since June 25, but appears to be healthy and able to play now.

Simply put, Sweeney is a better right-handed hitting option at first base than Cody Ransom. According to Jayson Stark of ESPN, Sweeney will be the regular first baseman while Ryan Howard recovers; Sweeney will not participate in a platoon with Ross Gload.

The Phils will get better at-bats from Sweeney than they would have from Ransom. Sweeney has a better eye and the potential for more power than Ransom. Cody has been okay in his stint with the big team, but the majority of his plate appearances have ended in three ways: strikeout, ground out, shallow fly. He was 3-for-26 on ground balls & fly balls, and 8-for-42 overall.

Ransom gained himself a spot on the 2010 highlight tape with a game-tying homer off the Reds’ Francisco Cordero during a six-run ninth on July 9th.

To make room for Sweeney, the Phils will either demote Ransom or the recently promoted John Mayberry, Jr. Ransom probably should go down, but the Phillies need infield depth more than they need outfield depth, and Greg Dobbs and Gload already possess the ability to play both corner outfield spots.

This is a good move. Mike Sweeney is nothing close to the player he used to be, but he’ll be a low-risk, potentially high-reward stop-gap for Ryan Howard this month, pinch-hitting depth next month, and then he probably won’t make a postseason roster.

In baseball terms, he costs nothing (about $225,000 left on his 2010 deal), so why not upgrade from Ransom to Sweeney? Good work, Rube.

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The Resilient Replacements

Posted by Corey Seidman, Wed, August 04, 2010 02:33 AM

In everyday language, the term “replacement player” refers to one who supplants another, taking his place.

In the world of 21st century baseball, however, the definition of “replacement-level player” goes a step further – it refers to the adequate fielding, poor hitting player who oftentimes serves as a stop-gap to a starter.

The only value a replacement player has is his physical ability to play the same position as the starter. He is organizational depth. He is Brian Bockock-ian.

In 2010, the Phillies have given 617 plate appearances to replacement players.

Know how many plate appearances they gave to replacement players last season? 618.

The Phillies have given almost an entire season’s worth of plate appearances to the adequate fielding, below average hitting, stop-gap 4-A replacement player…at multiple positions and in multiple slots in the batting order. And we still have 56 games to go.

The breakdown is as follows:

• 234 plate appearances for utilityman, Wilson Valdez
• 140 for [call him whatever you want,] Greg Dobbs
• 136 for washed-up utilityman, Juan Castro
• 43 for replacement-level defining, Cody Ransom
• 40 for 4th-string catcher, Dane Sardinha
• 21 for 3rd-string catcher, Paul Hoover

And the team is 58-48, two games behind the Atlanta Braves for first place in the NL East.

How many plate appearances have the Braves given to replacement players?

Well, it would be irresponsible of me to preclude Melky Cabrera from that category – he’s been worth 0.2 wins BELOW replacement this year in 355 plate appearances and 102 games of shaky outfield defense.

Aside from Cabrera, the Bravos haven’t given out too many at-bats to “that” level of player. Matt Diaz had a slow start, but he doesn’t come close to that category, nor does Yunel Escobar (bad fit), David Ross (105 OPS+ for a backup catcher), Gregor Blanco (defense, discipline), Omar Infante (positional value added to inflated batting average), or even Nate the Great McLouth.

(Take a second to click on McLouth.)

The Braves have been healthy, the Phillies haven’t. The Braves bench was and still is assembled to better make up for injuries than the Phillies’ second unit. And their bullpen is better. But that’s it. Through 106 games, that’s been it.

The Phillies have handed out 280 DL days to the ensemble cast of…

• (April) – Joe Blanton, Brad Lidge, J.C. Romero, Jimmy Rollins, J.A. Happ
• (May) – Ryan Madson, Brian Schneider, Jimmy Rollins
• (June) – Antonio Bastardo, Carlos Ruiz, Chad Durbin, Chase Utley, Placido Polanco
• (July) – Jamie Moyer, Shane Victorino
• (August) – Ryan Howard

…and they’re two games out of first place.

And so here lie the Phillies – no Ryan Howard, no Chase Utley, no Shane Victorino, no Jamie Moyer. Poised to make a run at a developingly-human Braves team. Whether or not they take the NL East lead in time for the big guns to make it back, it’s remarkable that this band of stars, underachievers, and replacements has gotten this far.

How have they done it?

Cole Hamels’ filthy 2010 season is a close runner-up to these two, but the main reasons have been:

1) Roy Halladay

It took Roy Halladay 23 starts to make this HIS team. In 17 of those 23 starts, he allowed two runs or less. He is an otherworldly talent. He is one-third man, one-third lion, one-third pitching machine.

He has a 7.52-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio, a ridiculous number overshadowed by only the dominance of Lee Who Shall Not Be Named, and a WHIP of damn-near 1.00.

This is Roy Halladay’s team right now. As he goes, so goes the team. Think about what an injury to Halladay would feel like. Did your earth just shatter? Do you want to get it out of your mind as soon as humanly possible right now?

THAT’S why it’s his team.

2) Ryan Howard

I debate with my colleagues and esteemed associates on Twitter on a weekly basis about Ryan Howard. One week it’s contract backlash. The next it’s ridicule of original contract backlash. The next it’s about strikeouts. The next it’s about singles. Then it’s about walk rates. Then isolated power. Then this. Then that. Then Angel Pagan (don’t ask…)

Bottom line, this right here…

For years we’ve asked for Ryan Howard to make more contact. We’ve asked him to strike out less and recognize situations that call for different approaches. And this year he has. Howard’s last three seasons:

• 2010: .292/.356/.528 – (.884 OPS)
• 2009: .279/.360/.571 – (.931 OPS)
• 2008: .251/.339/.543 – (.881 OPS)

Some claim he is “declining.” That his power skills are eroding. That his eye is getting worse. They fail to of course recognize the 4% drop in his strikeouts, because that is my side’s evidence.

They also fail to notice that his slugging percentage – the most indicative number here – is only ONE point lower today than it was on this day last year, and 26 points HIGHER today than it was on this day two years ago.

In 2010, Howard has traded strikeouts, walks, and a few homers for a bunch of singles. And that approach, which led to a typical late-season Howard Power Surge, has helped a completely depleted, wounded, and bed-ridden team to 58 wins in 106 games.

And, finally, I don’t care who in the SABR community kills me for saying their dirty word, “RBI”, I’m mentioning that he has an NL-leading 81 RBI when ALL three hitters in front of him have missed significant time, both alone and simultaneously.

That’s value. That’s production. That’s performance. Talk to me about the higher wOBAs of Angel Pagan and Andres Torres. I’ll listen for 15 seconds and move on.

Any logical, rational, intuitive baseball mind recognizes and applauds Howard for compiling those 81 RBI. They don’t discount it because an eclectic, stiff-speaking assortment of their contemporaries want to prove a point.

Where Do We Go From Here?

Halladay’s healthy. He’s fine. He struck out nine Marlins over seven stellar innings without his best stuff on a humid night in South Florida. He sweat, he labored, he ran uncharacteristic deep counts, but he made every single pitch when he needed to en route to a 13th win.

Howard is not healthy. He went on the 15-day DL Tuesday and might not even be ready when that stint is up.

There is no prediction to make here, because nothing this season has gone as scripted. Cody Ransom and Wilson Valdez made up the right side of the infield last night. At one point a few months ago, Wilson Valdez and Juan Castro made up the left side.

Where do we go from here? You know as well as I do. This team will either make one final push before the stars return to guide them, or they’ll fall just a bit short, disappointing us but gaining our admiration all the while.

Crazy game, that baseball.

(Completely off-topic SeidNote™: if you can, watch highlights of the Mets dugout’s greeting to Jeff Francoeur after his dramatic 9th inning game-winning homer off Billy Wagner. Whether or not you hate the team and its players…there’s nothin’ better than that reaction.)

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Oswalt Unpoised in Phillies Debut

Posted by Corey Seidman, Sat, July 31, 2010 03:31 AM

Don’t misinterpret this headline – no judgment is being passed on Roy Oswalt’s ability after one late July start. I mean, it’s not as if Roy Number Two a) pitched well in his debut Friday, b) hit his spots, or c) threw effective breaking pitches, but the mediocre first impression he left is not indicative of the The Real Roy Oswalt.

THAT is not the Oswalt you’re gonna get. So there’s no need for overreaction and even less of a need for worries.

There’s your “good” news. The bad news is that Oswalt looked completely unpoised in his six innings of work – letting his emotions show almost on-cue following every hanging breaking ball.

Now, emotions can be refreshing at times. Bill Simmons wrote a bunch of words last night about how boring players create an air of apathy (he didn’t write those exact words, but mentioned how it’s hard to identify with J.D. Drew because he carries a pokerface wherever he goes.)

Very, very rarely, however, are profanity and frustrated body language beneficial on the mound.

Once upon a time, Cole Hamels got flustered easily. The best way to describe Hamels’ prior tendencies after a poor play in the field would be “visibly upset.” This is how Oswalt appeared after Roger Bernadina’s double, Adam Dunn’s hit by pitch, and Josh Willingham’s two-run double.

On Bernadina’s double, Oswalt blatantly said “f–k, motherf—er,” almost immediately after Comcast SportsNet’s director called for a close-up on him. He made sure to add a “f–k, son of a b—h” before delivering his next pitch.

There are many reasons a pitcher can struggle on a given night, but poise, a solid mindset, and the ability to execute each play a massive role in subsequent outcomes. It is ironic that Oswalt’s blood pressure increased so much Friday night, because the pitcher he was traded for, J.A. Happ, is an absolute corpse on the mound. Nothing phases him.

(But, uh…yeah, I’ll still take Oswalt’s talent.)

Rarely is a pitcher effective once the floodgates of frustration open. Carlos Zambrano has showed us time and time and time again. The Hamels of old showed us, too, and Brett Myers before him. Friday was an off-night for Oswalt, but there was no-coming-back-for-him once he let his irritation build and surface.

An adjective like “fiery” is not something we can read about on paper from references in Houston. Oswalt may be an extremely fiery guy. That is something we’ll see for ourselves and be able to better determine after a few more starts. Maybe he is just so high strung that emotions and expletives fly no matter what the situation.

Or, hey, maybe he just can’t execute against the Nationals. On May 31, Oswalt pitched only 2.2 innings versus the Nats before his repeated arguing with home plate umpire Bill Hohn led to an ejection. Oswalt couldn’t hit his spots that day against Washington, nor could he on Friday.

The good news is: you don’t have to worry about his performance. This was merely an ill-timed off-night for Oswalt.

The bad news is, New Roy needs work on his pokerface.

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